2010 Mid-Year Crime Statistics:
Substantial Reductions

After somewhat discouraging numbers in 2009, Houston saw a substantial downturn in crime virtually across the board in the first half of 2010.

Violent Crimes

There were 11,248 violent crimes reported in the first six months of 2010, down over 8% from the first half of 20 09 at 12,239 and similarly down from 2008 at 12,389. Every violent crime category was down including rape and robbery, both which had shown troubling increases in the last couple of years. If the current trend continues, the violent crime rate would come in at 1,000 (violent crimes per 100,000 of population), a rate far lower than anything we have seen in the last decade.



Property Crimes

Contradicting the common belief that property crimes go up in hard economic times, all major categories of property crime were also down in the first half of 2010. Theft and burglary both reversed last year’s increases. Auto thefts continued its multi-year trend down. Auto thefts now stand at about half what they were a decade ago. This is a remarkable success and should be studied to see there are strategies employed in that area that could be used on other crimes.



Clearance Rates

Those of you who have followed my blogs on this subject know that I believe that a critical metric is the clearance rate, i.e. the percentage of reported crimes that HPD makes an arrest and for which charges are filed. Roughly speaking, it represents the percentage of crimes that are “solved.” Many academics that study crime believe that increasing the clearance rate is the best strategy for reducing crime.

From 2000-2006 clearance rates in Houston declined at a significant rate. However, beginning in 2006 and 2007, HPD began posting increases in the clearances rates. Particularly encouraging have been the improvement in the clearance rates for violent crimes.



If the current trend holds for the balance of the year, 2010’s clearance rates will be the best in decade. Improvement in the rate is a combination of an increased number of cases solved and a lower base¹. In 2009, HPD solved 9,631 violent crimes, which was highest since 2000. It is on track to slightly improve that performance this year.

The one area that continues to be problematic is burglary. It is one area that there has been very little improvement in the clearance for the last ten years and which currently stands at an abysmal 8%, meaning that 92% of the time the burglars get away scot free. It seems pretty clear that HPD is simply not applying the resources necessary to address our chronic burglary issues.



Perspective

I have not found anyone that has any plausible explanation as to why the records would reflect such a sharp decline in a relatively short period. It may just be a statistical anomaly that will adjust back to historical comparisons by year end. However, it nonetheless highlights two principles I have found true in watching these numbers over the last several years.

First, crime is a multi-faceted, complex phenomenon that is not capable of being reduced to intuitive insights. It is a phenomenon that involves hundreds of thousands of actors just in our area. In such complex systems, it is always perilous to base conclusions on popular beliefs.

Second, there is no way to get a real sense of the extent of criminal activity in our society from popular media accounts. While there has been a significant and persistent decrease in crime for the 30-40 years, one study found that the media coverage about crime had increased by over 1000% during that time. If we were to judge solely from the media, we would believe there is a rampant crime wave, mostly involving illegal immigrants. However, the numbers paint a very different picture.

In any event it will be fascinating to get the year-end numbers and see if we have a statistical anomaly or a nascent hopeful trend. Let’s hope for the later.

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¹ The clearance rate is a fraction with the number of cases solved as the numerator and the number of cases reported as the denominator. Therefore, when the number of reported cases goes down the rate will show improvement even if no more cases are solved.

2009 Crime Statistics:
Burglary Epidemic Resumes

In 2008, after several years of generally rising crime rates, we saw significant reductions in most crime categories. However, the 2009 report we recently obtained shows that improvement has reversed. Crime was up in almost all categories.

Perhaps most troubling is our impotence to do anything to control burglaries. In 2009, Houston set a new all-time record with 29,279 burglaries reported. The burglary rate (i.e. the number of burglaries reported per 100,000 population) which had dropped significantly last year to 1,253 increased to 1,308 in 2009. Well over 90% of burglaries continue to go unsolved.

One bright spot in the new numbers is that the clearance rates (the percentage of reported crimes for which a person is arrested and charged) for nearly every serious crime saw continued improvement. The clearance rate for violent crimes was particularly impressive increasing by 4% from 34% to 38%. This came on top of a 9% increase in 2008, thus raising the clearance rate for violent crimes from 25% to 38% in just two years, a significant improvement.



Violent Crimes

There were 25,614 violent crimes reported in 2009, also an all-time record. Murder and aggravated assault were about flat, but robbery showed a significant uptick similar to burglary. Because of a significant increase in the City's population estimate, the violent crime rate declined slightly from 1,153 to 1,141.


A troubling trend has developed in the last two years with respect to rapes. After about a decade of about 800-900 rapes being reported each year, the number dropped significantly in 2007 to under 700. However, 750 rapes were reported last year and this year the number topped 800 again. This trend makes even more urgent a resolution of the thousands of unprocessed rape kits in storage at HPD.

Property Crimes

Reports of thefts jumped by 12% to just over 77,000 (another all-time record). The theft rate also increased from 3,190 to 3,432. However, auto thefts once again declined, this year from 15,200 to 14,500. This is a continuation of a long term decline since auto thefts topped out in 2001 at over 24,000. It would be interesting to conduct a detailed study of this phenomenon to see if there are strategies or tactics that caused this decline and that could be applied to other categories.

Clearance Rates

Many observers judge a law enforcement agency by the number of crimes committed in that jurisdiction. But the overall crime rate is caused by many factors, most of which are outside the control of law enforcement. The better measure in my view is the rate at which the law enforcement agency solves crimes, both in terms of the absolute number of crimes solved and the percentage of solved cases vs. reports, commonly known as the clearance rate.

Judged by this yardstick, HPD continued the improvement we saw last year. The clearance rate for most serious crimes ticked up by 1-2%. Overall, HPD solved 23,875 serious crimes last year, also an all-time record. Even in the burglary category, HPD solved over 2,300 cases compared to just fewer than 1,900 last year. The cost of solving a serious crime (determined by dividing the HPD total budget by the number of serious crimes solved) dropped from over $30,000 in 2008 to slightly less $28,000 in 2009. This is the first decline in this cost indicator for as long as we have records.

Perspective

In 2009 a Houstonian became the victim of a serious crime every four minutes, over 150,000 in total. That is about one in fifteen residents. When you add the victims' families and close friends, almost no one is left untouched.

What is probably most troubling about the upturn in criminal activity in Houston during 2009 is that crime was apparently falling in most of the rest of the nation. Final numbers have not been released, but primarily results suggest that crime rates across the country will continue the decline that has been in place for several years. The fact that Houston is headed the other direction is a clear call for action.

But that action must not be guided by the tired old cliché of "putting more boots on the ground." While it is clear that more resources are needed, especially in investigation and technology, simply throwing more money at HPD, without clear expectations as to outcomes and a system for holding HPD accountable for those outcomes, will be a waste of taxpayer money. Over the last six years we have increased the HPD budget by over $200 million, a 48% increase. The year-over-year increase has averaged about 7%, a little more than double inflation for the same period. Yet we have fewer officers and only solved 3,700 more serious crimes than six years ago. Despite the cost improvement this year, that is a marginal cost of $59,000 per additional serious crime solved. That cost structure is unacceptable and unsustainable. We cannot just do more. We must be smarter about how we do more.

Erasing the Mark of Cain:
The Plight of Ex-Offenders
In case you missed it, the Chronicle published an op-ed on Sunday that I authored that discusses the plight that ex-offenders face in our society. (See http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/editorial/outlook/6709207.html.)

I began thinking about this issue after some friends had a son that ended up in prison as a result of a drug problem. Near the end of his sentence, they began to think about what he would do once he was released.

For the last couple of years in prison, this young man had a job as a trustee working in the prison dog pound, taking care of the bloodhounds. He loved the job and the animals and by all accounts did an excellent job. In addition to the trustees that worked in the pound, there were several civilian employees that supervised the work. As his release neared, an opening in one of these positions became available. It occurred to the young man that working in one of these positions would be something that he would enjoy and might provide a good transition to back into civilian life. So he applied for the position. TDCJ turned him down because he had a record.

Of course, the fact that the agency that is charged with responsibility of rehabilitating criminals refuses to hire them drips with irony. To be entirely fair, TDCJ, especially compared with other State prison systems, is in the forefront of developing programs to assist ex-offenders to prepare for life on the outside. But even so, the programs are woefully small and poorly funded. Spending money on "locking them up and throwing away the key" is more popular politically than spending money on rehabilitation programs.

Considering the current prison population and the rate at which individuals in Texas are incarcerated, there will be thousands of individuals released from prison for many years to come. Most have little or no family support and get off the bus from Huntsville with $50 in their pocket. No job. Nowhere to live. No credit. No driver's license. And on and on.

Many will say that these ex-offenders made their bed and now they have to lie in it. It is an understandable sentiment, but certainly not one to which people of faith, and especially Christians, can adhere. For the central tenant of the New Testament is forgiveness, even of the most heinous offenses, such as St. Paul's persecution of Christians prior to his conversion.

But laying aside the moral issue, what we are currently doing is just dumb public policy. With no alternative but to go back to "the street" to survive, it is hardly surprising that a significant majority of ex-offenders end up back in trouble with the law in a relatively short time. And in the meantime, crime rates and the cost of our criminal justice system soar.

There are no easy answers to this dilemma. Given current attitudes and potential liability issues, employers and landlords can hardly be blamed for being reluctant to hire or lease to ex-offenders. In the end it is going to take all of us changing the way we feel about and treat ex-offenders. If we do not, this destructive cycle will continue and we will all suffer the consequences.