According to the Texas Bureau of Vital Statistics, births in Harris County reached a peak of 73,427 in 2015. After 2015, the birth rate began to decline steadily. The decline steepened somewhat during the pandemic and then recovered slightly. In 2024, there were 65,668 births, representing a decrease of about 11% from the peak. Over the last 20 years, the only years lower than 2024 were those affected by the pandemic (2020-2022).

The U.S. Census also collects data on the number of births across the U.S. and publishes a database with various data elements on births. Since both get their information primarily from the same source documents, i.e., birth certificates, the numbers from the two agencies are generally consistent.

In 2016, the Census Bureau began collecting the country in which each mother was born. The latest data available is through 2023. During that time, just over 38% of the births in Harris County were to mothers who were born outside of the U.S. They literally come from every corner of the globe but are overwhelmingly from Latin America (71%). The largest contingent is from Mexico at 26%.

We have known from last year’s Census data that virtually all of Harris County’s growth last year came from international immigration. However, this data highlights the extent to which Harris County’s population growth has been driven not only by the annual number of immigrants who arrive here each year, but also by their contribution to the birth rate after they arrive.

This data emphasizes what a dramatic impact a major change in U.S. immigration policy would have on Harris County's growth. It is frankly not about how many people might be deported, because as the Trump administration is discovering, promising mass deportation is easier said than done. Even if the number of new immigrants arriving is significantly slowed, the combination of fewer new residents and the babies they would have will push Harris County into significant population loss.

This data makes me very skeptical of projections, such as this one from HGAC, which assumes the current level of immigration will remain unchanged and, as a result, shows births in the region continuing to rise indefinitely into the future.

If you look closely, you will see that the actual births in 2021-2023 were already substantially below their model’s predictions. If immigration slows significantly, it will drive the birth rate even lower.

We have no idea what the U.S. immigration policy will be in the long run. I suspect that if we have mass deportations or even a significant slowdown in new residents arriving, the country is going to get a dose of economic and demographic reality that may make us rethink our current dour view on immigration. But it is hard to imagine, given the country’s current mood, that we will not have significantly less immigration into Harris County over the next few years, at the very least. Projections that ignore immigration trends risk severely misjudging future growth patterns in the Houston region.