According to data from the research firm MRI Real Estate Software, apartment rents in the Houston region have been declining for nearly two years. However, this comes after a rapid increase in rents during the pandemic.

At the beginning of the pandemic, the average monthly rent for an apartment was $1,048, but then rapidly escalated over the next two years to $1,266, a 21% increase. Since late 2022, however, rents have fluctuated while generally trending downward and have steadily fallen since the end of 2024. Last month, the average was $1,252.

At $1,252, rents are still well above their pre-pandemic levels, but on an inflation-adjusted basis, they are down about 8% from 2019.

With a few exceptions, rents are down across the region. A handful of submarkets have shown some rebound in rents. Areas near the Texas Medical Center in particular have fared better.

MRI groups apartments into Classes A through D, generally based on age, condition, location, and amenities, with Class A representing the newest and most upscale properties and Class D the oldest and most distressed. These classifications are widely recognized in the multifamily industry.

Each class has a trajectory similar to the overall average. However, Class A has fallen further and more rapidly than the other classes, falling over 8% over the last four years. Most of the newer projects are Class A. The occupancy rate for projects that were opened in the second half of 2025 is only 66%. Many of these newer projects are offering substantial concessions to new tenants.

Class C and D project rents held relatively steady after the pandemic but have fallen significantly (5-7%) during the last year. I am tempted to associate that decline with the immigration crackdown since many recent immigrants begin their time in Houston in those projects. However, counterintuitively, occupancy in Class C and D projects is up slightly while rents have declined over the same period. I spoke to several Class C and D owners, who indicated that they have been forced to aggressively cut rents and offer other incentives to maintain occupancy. Anecdotally, they indicate that their tenants' immigration issues have put constant but modest pressure on maintaining their occupancy. This generally aligns with my impression that the new immigration enforcement policies are causing a gradual decline in Houston’s immigrant population, but not a dramatic exodus.

The number in MRI’s report that got my attention is that there are 80,000 vacant apartments in the Houston region. That large number of vacancies, combined with falling rents, complicates the common characterization that Houston is facing a worsening housing-affordability problem.

It does not mean that every Houston household can afford suitable housing. Extremely low-income residents may remain unable to afford even comparatively modest rents. But the data raises an important question: Are Houston’s current housing difficulties primarily the result of an insufficient supply of apartments, or of incomes that are too low for some households to afford the housing already available?

More to come on that question.

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